Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species

Authors: Brian Folt, Michael Marshall, Jo Anna Emanuel, Michelina Dziadzio, Jane Cooke, Lourdes Mena, Matthew Hinderliter, Scott Hoffmann, Nicole Rankin, John Tupy, Conor McGowan

Imperiled species face numerous and diverse anthropogenic threats to their persistence, and wildlife managers charged with making conservation decisions benefit from a sound understanding of how populations, species, and ecosystems will respond to future changes in threats to biodiversity. In southeastern North America, the gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in upland ecosystems; however, tortoise populations have declined strongly over the last century, and the species is a candidate for increased protection by the United States federal government under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Here, we sought to support conservation decision making for G. polyphemus by developing a spatially-explicit predictive population model that linked four anthropogenic threats (climate warming, sea-level rise, urbanization, habitat degradation) to demographic vital rates and used the model to estimate future changes in the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations across the species’ range. Using recent survey data, we projected 457 populations for 80 years into the future under scenarios varying in threat magnitude, management magnitude, and demographic uncertainty. Population projections predicted that the number of individuals, populations, and metapopulations would decline among all simulated scenarios in the next 80 years. Model predictions were more sensitive to variation in adult survival and immigration rates than to variation in threat magnitude. A scenario with decreased habitat management and threat effects from climate warming, sea-level rise, and urbanization predicted geographic variation in persistence probabilities for populations that might result in decreased genetic representation across the species' range. Our results can be used to support conservation listing decisions for the gopher tortoise as part of its federal Species Status Assessment and provide an analytical framework for how to link diverse threats to geographically-varying demographic rates during population viability analyses for wide-ranging imperiled species around the world.

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