Podcast Ep. #9: The Story of Texas Land Trends

Over the last 25 years, we've documented how rapid population growth has changed Texas lands through fragmentation, development, and suburbanization. More and more people are moving to Texas every year, prompting decision-makers to seek additional natural resources and land to support them. In a state as vast as Texas, which boasts 142 million acres of private farms, ranches, and forests, our working lands are the beating heart of our state. Losing working lands impacts everything from wildlife habitat to rural economies to food and water security for major urban centers. Our changing landscape will impact all Texans, and a better understanding of the drivers of change will support the future conservation of working lands.

In part one of a two-part series for The Land Steward Podcast, host BW shares some background on the 25^th anniversary Texas Land Trends report and the four main takeaways from the data. The Texas Land Trends program, led by NRI’s director, Dr. Roel Lopez, has monitored the status and changes of land use across the state of Texas for the last quarter of a century. The work done by our dedicated geospatial analysis team enables us to describe changes in Texas land use, land values, property ownership sizes, and more. This critical data helps provide decision-makers and stakeholders with timely information to support the conservation and strategic planning of working lands within a more spatial context. Since the inception of Texas Land Trends, it has been a critical resource in understanding the complex landscapes of Texas working lands—farms, ranches, and forests that are increasingly threatened by rapid economic and population growth.

Data Sources

The milestone 25^th anniversary report and its predecessors have two primary data sources—the Ag Census and the Texas Comptroller’s Office. The Ag Census reports every five years on the number of working lands and the operations by size class for every county in Texas. According to the Ag Census, an “operation” is a property that had at least $1,000 or more in agricultural products that were produced, sold, or normally would have been sold over a year. Data is submitted to the census voluntarily, so it is not entirely comprehensive but paints a general picture for much of the state. The Texas Comptroller’s Office annually compiles data from all private lands under 1D or 1D1 appraisal status for all Texas ISDs—essentially properties designated as ag producers versus open space lands.

The four key takeaways from the report involve increases in population and land values, as well as changes in ownership and land use.

Growing Population

One of the most significant drivers of increased demand for rural land, especially around urban centers, is Texas’s rapidly growing population. For perspective, the combined population of the 25 highest-growth counties in Texas exceeds the individual populations of every other U.S. state except California. Within these heavily populated counties, Texas has eight of the top 15 fastest-growing cities in the country. With an increase from 19 million to 30 million people in 25 years, the state is gaining approximately 1,100 new residents every single day. Such rapid growth is creating pressure on the resources we depend on for our livelihoods and survival, such as water.

Land Value Increase

Historically, land market values in Texas have served as a strong indicator of the demand for rural land as the population grows—the average appraised market value rose 505% from $499/acre in 1997 to $3,021/acre in 2022. Interestingly, recent data indicated that the changes in land market values are closely tied to the distance from major metropolitan areas. This is putting increased pressure on landowners who own land outside urban centers to decide whether they will keep their land or allow it to be fragmented and/or used for development. Every landowner has a unique story, approach to the land, and motivation for keeping their land, but all are faced with an economic bottom line. When confronted with accepting a life-changing amount of money in exchange for the land they have been stewarding, this is not an easy decision for many landowners. Many choose to sell or subdivide their land, which is then converted from an agricultural classification.

Changing Ownership Patterns

When discussing the “loss” of Texas working lands, it’s essential to reiterate that the state has not literally decreased in size; rather, the way the land is being used has changed. In previous Land Trends reports, the number of farms and ranches increased over time while the acreage of working lands decreased. These numbers indicate that larger properties were being fragmented into smaller operations. However, over the last five years, the total number of operations reduced by over 17,000, and the acreage of working lands has decreased by approximately 1.5 million acres. This shift indicates that lands are being lost to conversion more quickly than they are being fragmented into smaller operations. One statistic that surprised NRI’s geospatial team was the statewide average farm size increasing from 509 acres to 541 acres. This change likely indicates that land is being consolidated into larger operations or smaller plots are converting to different land uses more than in previous years.

Land Use Changes

When we discuss operations converting away from 1D or 1D1 ag classifications, we must assume that the land has either been developed or is being used for another non-agricultural purpose; due to data limitations, we don’t know for sure how the land is being utilized. Texas lost nearly 3.7M acres of working lands to non-agricultural uses between 1997 and 2022, with a significant increase in the last five-year period. There was a noticeable shift away from grazing and croplands towards wildlife management, or 1D1 valuation. This does not necessarily mean that open space lands no longer have cattle but rather that they are making stewardship decisions based on their specific property and circumstances, allowing them to achieve a combination of agricultural productivity and conservation actions.

Why does it matter?

Texas remains the state we know and love—81% of its total land area is still comprised of private working lands. As the population and economy continue to grow, so will the demand for rural land surrounding major urban centers and transportation corridors. These pressures will continue to catalyze the fragmentation and conversion of working lands, as has been observed over the last 25 years. These lands are essential for supporting the energy industry and military operations by providing open space infrastructure, access to resources, and vital training grounds while helping to prevent development and encroachment and maintaining safety buffers. It is also crucial that they continue to provide the traditional benefits of working lands, including food and fiber, ecosystem services, water storage, clean air, and more that both urban and rural Texans depend on.

This is the story of the Texas Land Trends program. The future of working land conservation is closely tied to private landowners who strategically manage their properties. Informed conservation and urban planning efforts should include and target these landowners, exploring methods to incentivize the continued stewardship of working lands in Texas over the next 25 years. Understanding these crucial data points helps decision-makers stay informed and make the best possible decisions for the future of Texans and Texas lands.